Leaders and managers are often advised to scrutinize their market and customer data to spot possible “weak signals”—these micro-changes or these burgeoning expectations that prefigure future megatrends. But how can we determine if a given anomaly in the data is a weak signal, or simply a value that diverges from the average? The processing of important masses of data necessarily involves the presence of numerous anomalies, which does not however mean they are all significant.

To make a judgment, experts in strategy advise that we evaluate each anomaly according to three dimensions:

- Its dynamic: is the anomaly persisting over time? Is it rapidly growing? Do the pioneers in your sector appear to show close interest in it?

- Its robustness: does the anomaly appear in several sets of data? Is it coherent with other changes in your environment?

- Its impact: does the anomaly reveal a dead angle which is not covered by current offerings? What would be the consequences if it became widespread?

A simple analysis framework, to experiment in your next strategic thinking sessions.

Source: The Power of Anomaly, Martin Reeves, Bob Goodson, Kevin Whitaker, Harvard Business Review, July-August 2021.