Geopolitical events can greatly affect companies. The war in Ukraine is sad witness to it. Its economical impacts are many: closure of subsidiaries in some countries, disorganization of the supply chains, tensions on some raw materials, soaring costs…

But be careful: confronted with the impact of the crisis, we easily forget that any change can also offer new possibilities. For example, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, whilst disrupting the European energy market, accelerated the transition towards renewable energies. When the parameters that governed a sector are suddenly upset, it is time to wonder. Could what represented a marginal differentiation on the market become an asset to exploit? Isn’t it time to revive an innovation project that was abandoned because of a lack of profitability? Similarly, the constraints on the supply chains boost the emergence of pivotal geographic areas, such as India and Vietnam. Isn’t it time to establish operations there? When a crisis happens, we must of course protect ourselves—but also know how to overcome the ambient pessimism to actively explore the possibilities offered by the new context.

Source: Black swans, gray rhinos, and silver linings: Anticipating geopolitical risks (and openings), Andrew Grant, Ziad Haider, Anke Raufuss, McKinsey, February 2023.