Vous allez commettre une terrible erreur !

[You are about to make a terrible mistake!]

Neither intelligence nor experience can protect us from bad decisions. Research in cognitive psychology has repeatedly documented it: our cerebral and social functioning predisposes us to errors in judgment. It is impossible to avoid cognitive and social biases.

The good news is, Olivier Sibony assures, that failing the ability to avoid these biases, we can however counter them. First, by admitting our fallibility: humility is a first protection against blindness. Second, by avoiding making decisions alone. Indeed, whereas it is almost impossible to suppress our own biases, we can on the other hand neutralize those of others—and vice-versa. The author analyzes nine major types of errors—for example: the traps of imitation, of excessive self-confidence, of time horizons, etc. Using simple examples, he analyzes the biases at work in the background. In a second phase, he proposes a decision-making method that, through the play of collective regulation, minimizes the risk of error.

The ideas are clear, documented—and arrive in the nick of time in this period of conflicting choices!