The Sixth Sense
Managing uncertainty more effectively with the scenario planning method.
Author(s): Ron Bradfield, Kees Van der Heijden, George Wright, George Cairns, George Burt
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Date of publication: 2002
Manageris opinion
This book notes that most companies aren't very good at predicting what will come next. Their approach tends to be rigid, conformist and excessively intellectual. The authors recommend systematic reliance upon scenario thinking - not as a means to foretell the future, but to learn to reason effectively in uncertain environments and prepare for different eventualities.
See also
Preparing for an uncertain future
In times of turmoil and strong uncertainty, how can you manage beyond simply coping with the situation? One solution consists in accepting the inevitable nature of uncertainty: the challenge comes not in minimizing it, but in managing it.